In anticipation of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s visit to Beijing this week, Chinese President Xi Jinping and Putin exchanged congratulatory letters on Sunday. This comes on the heels of former U.S. President Donald Trump’s recent visit to China. Xi praised the deepening cooperation between China and Russia, highlighting the 30-year anniversary of their strategic partnership. Putin is scheduled to arrive in China on Tuesday evening and hold talks with Xi the following morning. Discussions are expected to cover various aspects of bilateral relations, including the potential development of the Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline, according to Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov.
The closely timed visits of Trump and Putin to China have drawn significant attention, with analysts noting the rarity of such high-profile meetings occurring back-to-back. China’s strengthened ties with Russia have raised concerns in the West, particularly following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Western diplomats and analysts have pointed out that China’s economic and diplomatic backing has played a role in sustaining the conflict. Xi and Putin have met over 40 times, surpassing Xi’s interactions with Western leaders.
Sino-Russian trade has reached unprecedented levels since 2022, with China purchasing more than a quarter of Russia’s exports. China’s acquisition of Russian crude oil has generated significant revenue for Moscow, aiding its war efforts in Ukraine. Data from the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air indicates that China has bought over $367 billion worth of Russian fossil fuels since the conflict began, bolstering its energy security amid Middle East tensions affecting oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.
While the Ukraine conflict and Sino-Russian relations were not prominent topics during Trump’s discussions with Xi, the talks mainly revolved around trade, the situation in Taiwan, and Middle Eastern affairs. Trump noted an agreement with Xi on the importance of reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Xi cautioned Trump on the potential consequences of mishandling the Taiwan issue, and Trump left Beijing undecided on a multibillion-dollar arms deal for Taiwan. Halting the sale would mark a significant victory for Beijing, which aims to assert control over the self-governing island, despite opposition from most Taiwanese.
Joseph Webster, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, suggested that Taiwan might be an underlying theme in the upcoming Xi-Putin meeting. He speculated that Beijing could seek additional fossil fuel agreements with Moscow to secure energy supplies in case of future conflicts. Expanding the Russian oil pipeline capacity to China could bolster Beijing’s energy security in a potential Taiwan contingency, as noted by Webster. Meanwhile, Russia has been encouraging China to advance the Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline, which would enhance the gas network capacity between the two nations by 50 billion cubic meters.